Women’s NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament Betting Preview

Kyle Garlett Article ByKyle Garlett

March 18, 2024

It was a season for record-breaking in women’s college basketball. Multiple scoring records fell, as did records for television viewership. And now we all turn our attention to what is sure to be an incredible Women’s NCAA Division I Tournament, with the chance for more records.

First Four

The first “First Four” was played on the men’s side in 2011. The women expanded their field in 2022, and since then they’ve also been playing the First Four.

We start things off for the women on Wednesday, with Sacred Heart and Presbyterian playing for the right to be the 16-seed that plays South Carolina in the Round of 64. South Carolina is the runaway favorite to win the entire tournament – college basketball online sportsbooks have them at -120, and the winner on Wednesday night is in for a rough Friday.

Also tipping off on Wednesday is Vanderbilt and Columbia, playing for the right to be a 12-seed. The Commodores are in their first tournament in 10 years, and Columbia, which began playing in the Ivy League in 1986, is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time.

On Thursday, the two games feature Auburn and Arizona playing for the 11-seed, and Holy Cross and Tennessee Martin playing for a 16-seed. The winner of Auburn-Arizona will play Syracuse on Saturday. The Holy Cross-Tennessee Martin winner gets No. 1 seed Iowa.

Caitlin Clark set multiple records this year, including most three-pointers made in one season. The record for career three-pointers made is 537 and held by Taylor Robertson. Iowa online sportsbooks are taking bets on when Clark, who has 520, will break the record and hit three-pointer 538. The betting favorite is the Elite 8, at +200. If she can get there by the second round, the payout is +5000.

Albany 1 Region

As mentioned already, South Carolina is the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets in Cleveland and win the National Championship. They have an entirely new starting lineup from last year, and they are actually better than last year’s Final Four team.

They are first in the nation in defense, second overall in offense, and they are a perfect 32-0. Notre Dame is the No. 2 seed in the region, and Indiana online sportsbooks have the Irish a distant +4500 to win the tournament.

Albany 2 Region

Iowa is the No. 1 seed in the Albany 2 Region, which includes No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 LSU, and No. 4 Kansas. It’s a tough bracket for the Hawkeyes, and if they do make it back to the Final Four, it will be well-earned. UCLA is one of the deepest teams in the country, and LSU is the defending champion. If things go as planned for the Hawkeyes and Tigers, we’ll see the Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rematch, with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Portland 3 Region

USC is the top seed in the Portland 3 Region, and they face Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the first round. Freshman JuJu Watkins finished as the nation’s second-leading scorer, only trailing Clark. Also in the region is UConn, who, despite losing five players to season-ending injuries, are once again in the national championship conversation. The 11-time national champion is paying +1600 to win another title at Connecticut online sportsbooks.

Portland 4 Region

The final region is Portland 4, and the Texas Longhorns are the top seed. Even after losing point guard Rori Harmon to a torn ACL in December, Texas still managed to win the Big 12 and earn a top seed. Stanford is the two-seed, and they were in the running for the No. 1 until the final day. 

BetUS.com has Clark as the big favorite to win WNBA Rookie of the Year in 2024, paying +400. But if she doesn’t, Stanford’s Cameron Brink is a likely candidate. She was an NCAA champion in 2021, she has twice been the Pac-12 Player of the Year, and most WNBA online sportsbooks have the Los Angeles Sparks selecting her with the No. 2 overall pick in the WNBA Draft, just behind Clark.

Men’s NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament Betting Preview

Kyle Garlett Article ByKyle Garlett

March 18, 2024

After a great week of conference tournament action, and a final goodbye to the Pac-12 conference, the Men’s NCAA Tournament field is set. On Tuesday, the first of 67 games tips off.

First Four

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we have the First Four, as eight teams compete in four games for the right to play in the final field of 64 teams.

The first game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, is between Wagner and Howard. The winner will be the 16th seed in the West Region and play No. 1 seed North Carolina on Thursday. Wagner is in the tournament for the first time in 21 years, while Howard was a 16-seed last year and lost to Kansas.

The second game Tuesday night is for the 10th seed in the Midwest, as Virginia takes on Colorado State. BetUS.com has the Rams of CSU two-point favorites to advance to the first round on Thursday and play the 7th-seeded Texas Longhorns.

Wednesday’s games feature two other similar battles – Grambling and Montana State play as 16-seeds, with the winner playing the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, Purdue. Colorado and Boise State are 10-seeds, and the winner there will play No. 7 Florida in the South. Grambling is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since moving to Division I. The Bobcats of Montana State are in the Big Dance for the third straight year.

Final Four Betting Odds

Purdue is the top seed in the Midwest, and college basketball online sportsbooks have the Boilermakers as the heavy favorite to win the region. They are paying +165, while No. 2 seed Tennessee is at +350. The Creighton Blue Jays are the No. 3 seed, and they are +400 to make the Final Four. Kansas is the four-seed and Gonzaga is the five, but it is the Bulldogs who have the fourth-shortest odds in the region at +700.

North Carolina is the top seed in the West Region. However, the newly opened online sportsbooks in the Tar Heel State do not have them as the favorites to advance to the Final Four. UNC is second at +230, and Arizona is first at +190. The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups for the West Region take place at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Baylor is the third-seed and pays +700. Alabama is No. 4 and paying +900 to make a Final Four run.

The defending champion Connecticut Huskies are the top seed in the East Region, and they are big favorites to win it, paying +105. Auburn is the No. 4 seed, and their odds for the Final Four are +380. Iowa State is the two seed, but Iowa retail sportsbooks have them as the third-most likely team to advance. A Final Four bet on the Cyclones pays +400. Illinois, the three seed, is +750.

To no one’s surprise, the Houston Cougars were given the top seed in the South, and they are favorites to win the region at +140. Duke is next, with No. 2 seed Marquette trailing them. Wisconsin retail sportsbooks have the Golden Eagles at +550 and the Blue Devils at +450, despite Duke being just the fourth seed. Kentucky is the No. 3 seed and they are paying +700.

Five versus Twelve Upset

When you fill out your bracket this week, you do have to pick at least one No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed. Otherwise your bracket is incomplete. Or at least ignoring the history of this matchup.

The No. 12 seed is 53-99 all-time in the first round, which is a winning percentage of .349, and at least one 12-seed has won in 17 of the last 22 tournaments.

Bovada.lv provides the odds for the four matchups this year:

No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (-6.5)

No. 12 UAB vs. No. 5 San Diego State (-6.5)

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. St. Mary’s (-5)

No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-4.5)

Along with the bookmakers rating James Madison with the best chance for the upset, so do the numbers. JMU is one of just four teams this year to win 30 games – they finished the season 31-3. They also head into the first round matchup with the Badgers on a 13-game win streak.

O’Hara and Enrique’s Premier League Matchweek 5 Preview

After a weekend off and with the international break behind us, we take a look at what the fifth round of Premier League fixtures has in store for us.

Grosvenor Sport ambassadors Jamie O’Hara and Jose Enrique take a closer look at three of the weekend’s key fixtures in Manchester United versus Brighton, West Ham versus Manchester City, and Newcastle versus Brentford.

Watch the full episode of The Counter Attack with Jamie O’Hara and Jose Enrique here.

Manchester United v Brighton

Jamie O’Hara:

This is a massive game for Manchester United as they’ve already put themselves under pressure with their result so far. They might have Rasmus Hojlund coming into the starting 11 and he looked positive when he came on against Arsenal, but they could well struggle against this strong Brighton side.

It will be a brilliant game to watch and I’m looking forward to seeing Evan Ferguson, who I think has a really bright future. On top of that, they have Kaoru Mitoma, who I think is a £100 million player.

I just have a feeling with United being at home, Marcus Rashford coming back and Hojlund potentially starting, that they will be able to get a result. Bruno Fernandes has taken some stick but his performances have actually been really good and I think with those three you’ve always got a chance. It’s going to be close but I can see United winning this one – either way it will be a brilliant game.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 1 Brighton 8/1

Anytime goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes 39/20

Jose Enrique:

I think Manchester United are now in a situation where if they don’t start games well then the stadium turns a bit toxic and they start to go against the owners, and Brighton can take advantage of that if they start well.

They’re already under pressure given their results so far and the situation between ten Hag and Sancho. After a very good season last season I expected Manchester United to be in a much better position at the moment, and now I don’t think things are going to end well for ten Hag.

Watch the full conversation on Erik ten Hag here

Even at home I don’t think this game is 50/50 and I am more in favour of Brighton in this game. They are in a much more positive place in terms of their fanbase and the general feel around the club than Manchester United are at the moment, and I think they could come away with all three points.

I still think it could be a tight game, but I am siding with Brighton. Mitoma is one of my favourite wingers in the league because he is so direct. It will be a great 1v1 battle between him and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, but I can see Mitoma coming out on top.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 2 Brighton 10/1

Anytime goalscorer: Kaoru Mitoma 27/10

West Ham v Manchester City

Jose Enrique:

This game is a prime example of why the Premier League is the best league in the world. To anyone who doesn’t watch the Premier League this game would seem like an easy win for Manchester City, but people that have played in it or watch it will know that this will be a fantastic watch.

West Ham will make this a tough game but I can’t get away from the fact that Manchester City, even if they don’t play at their best, always have the ability to kill teams at any point in a match. A counter-attacking approach will benefit West Ham because we all know that Manchester City will be going all out to win the game.

Anything could happen, but I am going to play it safe and say that City win this game. West Ham’s chances will be few and far between whilst City have the likes of Erling Haaland and Phil Foden in attack, so I believe they will win – they are just too good.

Score prediction: West Ham 0 – 2 Manchester City 7/1

Anytime goalscorer: Erling Haaland 13/25

Jamie O’Hara:

In any other season I would probably have said that this would be a walk in the park for Manchester City, but this West Ham team have been a real surprise with the performances they have put in so far.

They are willing to sacrifice possession and they hit you so ruthlessly on the counter-attack, and David Moyes has been fantastic in masterminding that approach. They could make this a really tough game for City.

I’m going to stick my neck out on the line a bit and say that West Ham will snatch a draw here. It will be tough for them to keep City out but I can see them getting goals on the break, potentially with a late equaliser to send the London Stadium crazy.

Score prediction: West Ham 2 – 2 Manchester City 14/1

Anytime goalscorer: Michail Antonio 24/5

Newcastle v Brentford

Jamie O’Hara:

Newcastle have had a really tough start to the season and they’re in poor form with three losses in a row, and they got absolutely pumped by Brighton in their last game. It’s not looking good for them at the moment. They’ve already lost three and you can only really lose six or seven if you want to be in the top four.

Newcastle need to bounce back and I think the international break came at the right time. They’ve had time to rethink and now they’ll have the St James’ Park crowd behind them again and that is always a massive help.

I can only see this going Newcastle’s way given how crucial it is that they win this game. Anthony Gordon has impressed me so far this season and given that Brentford will likely play as expansive as they always do, I could see him being very effective on the break.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2 – 0 Brentford 6.5/1

Anytime goalscorer: Anthony Gordon 19/5

Jose Enrique:

I don’t think anybody expected Newcastle to have such an underwhelming start to the season. There is more pressure on them this season to get into the top four, and you can see the impact the pressure is having on the players. They don’t look like the same team.

I think they have improved the squad on paper from last season and have a better starting XI and bench, but they are not performing at the same level as last year. The way they are playing at the moment doesn’t give me any positives when considering them for a top four spot.

They need to improve and this game is a great opportunity. At home, against Brentford, with the fans willing them on, I think they will win the game. I can see them getting back to their best in this fixture, and once they get the first goal their confidence will lift. Alexander Isak has been one of the few positives for them this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see back on the scoresheet.

Score prediction: Newcastle 3 – 0 Brentford 10/1

Anytime goalscorer: Alexander Isak 11/8

Watch the full conversation around Gameweek 5 here

Gameweek 5 predictions:

Wolves v Liverpool

Jose Enrique: Liverpool 4/9

Jamie O’Hara: Liverpool 4/9

 

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

Jose Enrique: Aston Villa 19/20

Jamie O’Hara: Aston Villa 19/20

 

Fulham v Luton

Jose Enrique: Draw 3/1

Jamie O’Hara: Fulham 4/6

 

Manchester United v Brighton

Jose Enrique: Brighton 11/5

Jamie O’Hara: Manchester United 23/20

 

Tottenham v Sheffield United

Jose Enrique: Tottenham 8/25

Jamie O’Hara: Tottenham 8/25

 

West Ham v Manchester City

Jose Enrique: Manchester City 12/25

Jamie O’Hara: Draw 15/4

 

Newcastle v Brentford

Jose Enrique: Newcastle 4/7

Jamie O’Hara: Newcastle 4/7

 

Bournemouth v Chelsea

Jose Enrique: Draw 16/5

Jamie O’Hara: Draw 16/5

 

Everton v Arsenal

Jose Enrique: Arsenal 8/15

Jamie O’Hara: Arsenal 8/15

 

Nottingham Forest v Burnley

Jose Enrique: Nottingham Forest 59/50

Jamie O’Hara: Nottingham Forest 59/50

Catching My Eye: Kentucky Downs Preview Weekend at Ellis Park

It was Kentucky Downs Preview Weekend at Ellis Park last weekend (Aug. 5 and 6), and each of the seven stakes written across the two days awarded automatic berths into corresponding races at Kentucky Downs. That lucrative meet runs Aug. 31 and Sept. 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 and 13.

The $300,000 Pucker Up Stakes (G3)

A third-place finish in a graded stakes is nothing to shake a stick at, but you have to watch Freydis the Red (FR)’s run in the Pucker Up to understand how nice of an effort this was from the 6-1 shot.

Drawing the outside gate and having decent early foot, she broke well and threatened to find herself six-wide or more in the first turn. Brian “B.J.” Hernandez rightfully tucks her in but winds up at the back of the pack coming out of the turn. The turf course was playing fast and carrying speed on Sunday, so it would be a tall assignment to mow down the likes of Safeen and Bling, who finished one, two.

Some turf stars show a burst of speed late, others show off their power; file Freydis in the latter category, as she rallied home the final furlong in 11.58 seconds, the fastest in the field. Having shown nicely in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Oaks (G1), going further doesn’t seem to be a problem for Kenny McPeek’s three-year-old filly, who regressed earning a 78 Brisnet Speed figure but overcame a subtly tough trip and a course favoring forward runners.

With her victory in the Pucker Up, Safeen earned a spot in the $1 million Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3), which will be run on Sept. 3.

The $250,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup

How about that late kick from Me and Mr. C? Getting Mike Maker his first mark in the win column after 28 starts this meet, the six-year-old ridden by Gerardo Corrales stormed from the back of the pack to win the 1 1/4 miles Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup at 16-1, nailing Cellist at the wire.

Coming out of the far turn, things looked tight for Me and Mr. C, but a clean lane opened up for him to gather his run. Still, in the final stages, it didn’t look like he would be able to fight to the top, as Get Smokin and Cellist were hanging on, and War Campaign and Siege of Boston were finding their best run late.

Me and Mr. C tied the course record of 1:57.94, set by Bluegrass Parkway in 2021. He received a berth to the Sept. 9, $1.7 million Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (G2). The 108 Brisnet Speed figure, 16 points higher than his previous best, should be looked at judiciously going forward considering how fast they were flying across the Pea Patch green.

The $200,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Sprint

Possibly the opposite reaction should be applied to the 94 Brisnet speed figure One Timer earned taking the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Sprint on Sunday. After hounding Just Might through the toll-taking 21.23-, 43.43-, and 54.82-second opening fractions, One Timer had enough left to hold off the late kicks of Bad Beat Brian and Oceanic. Larry Rivelli’s lightly-raced four-year-old just banked win No. 7 in 11 career starts, including the 20-1 upset in last year’s $600,000 Franklin-Simpson (G2) at Kentucky Downs.

Two-year-old colts

Neither of Kenny McPeek’s freshman duo won the one-mile maiden special weight on Saturday, but both impressed me more than the winner, West Saratoga.

Speed and the rail at Ellis have been the advantaged style and position, and after the rail-skimming frontrunning winner had shot away from the field in the final furlongs, Generous Tipper was putting in a visually-impressive late run down the center of the track, narrowing the margin of defeat to a little over a length. After going one mile on the turf in his debut, the son of Street Sense definitely has a nice late move, and I could see him heading back to that surface.

A distant third place went to Django, who lost five lengths out of the gate and traveled as far as five-wide in the turn, took a knock, but still beat seven others home. A half to graded stakes sprinter Finley’sluckycharm and the eight-time turf winner M C Squared, Django’s next spot could be shorter or maybe on the grass, but either way he needs to figure out how to break cleanly. Once he does, watch out.